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Second update of the “Indicators of Global Climate Change” research initiative with contributions from MCC. The 1.5-degree Celsius threshold is all but breached.
05.06.2024
Global heating caused by humans is advancing at 0.26 degrees Celsius (°C) per decade – the highest rate since records began, according to research by over 50 leading international scientists. They find that in 2023, global surface temperatures were 1.43°C above their pre-industrial levels, with human activity accounting for 1.3°C of that figure. The “Indicators of Global Climate Change” research initiative is being led by the University of Leeds, and supported by the Berlin-based climate research institute MCC (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change). The indicator report has now been published in the renowned journal Earth System Science Data.
The report finds that the high rate of heating is driven by consistently high greenhouse gas emissions, equivalent to 53 billion tonnes of CO2 per year. On the other hand, the certain degree of human-caused cooling from particles in the atmosphere is decreasing due to improvements in air quality. High greenhouse gas emission levels are also affecting Earth’s energy balance: ocean buoys and satellites are tracking unprecedented flows of heat into oceans, ice caps, soils and the atmosphere. This flow of heat is 50 percent higher than its long-term average.
“The analysis comes as climate experts meet in Bonn to prepare the ground for the COP29 climate conference in Azerbaijan,” highlights Jan Minx, head of the MCC working group Applied Sustainability Science, and a co-author of the study. “By providing this second data update, we aim to help close the information gap, particularly when climate indicators are changing rapidly.” The authoritative source of scientific information on the state of the climate is the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but its next major assessment will not happen until around 2027.
According to the new report, the 1.5°C threshold noted in the Paris world climate agreement is all but breached. The central estimate for the remaining carbon budget – how much carbon can be released into the atmosphere to give a 50 percent chance of keeping global temperature rise within 1.5°C – is 200 gigatonnes of CO2 by the start of 2024. This is 60 percent less than 2020, when the IPCC had calculated it at around 500 gigatonnes. (Note: these figures are not comparable with those used in the MCC Carbon Clock, where the annual emission rate is for CO2 only, and the contribution of other greenhouse gases to global heating is subtracted before calculating the remaining carbon budget. Furthermore, the budget is calculated with reference to a 67 rather than 50 percent probability of complying with the temperature limit.)
Piers Forster, Director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures Leeds and lead author of the study, says: “Even though climate action has slowed the rise in greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures are still heading in the wrong direction and faster than ever before. Our analysis is designed to track the long-term trends caused by human activities. Last year, when observed temperature records were broken, natural factors were temporarily adding around 10 percent to the long-term warming.” William Lamb, researcher at MCC and lead author of the study’s emissions section, says: “Until we dramatically reduce deforestation and the combustion of coal, oil and gas, greenhouse gases will continue to accumulate in the atmosphere and drive climate impacts.”
The indicator report is accompanied by an open-data, open-science “Climate Change Tracker” platform. The tracker provides easy access to the key climate indicators.
Further information:
GRID: An analysis shows the vast majority of 2024’s largest clean energy projects were built in Texas, which leads the U.S. in installed utility-scale solar and wind capacity and is gaining on California for battery storage. (Canary Media)
ALSO:
WIND: Oklahoma lawmakers take aim at renewables with two dozen bills that restrict wind and solar development, including one bill to allow counties to block wind projects near crude oil hubs. (Tulsa World)
OIL & GAS:
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: Trump’s rollback of a $7,500 tax credit for the purchase of electric vehicles could delay or halt South Carolina’s new and planned electric vehicle and battery plants, which it’s already spent millions to attract. (The State)
CARBON CAPTURE: Shell and Mitsubishi name a startup company to provide carbon capture technology at a direct air capture hub they want to build in Louisiana, although the project is contingent on clean energy funding the Trump administration might roll back. (E&E News, subscription)
NUCLEAR: The Tennessee Valley Authority selects contractors for the initial planning and design phases of a planned 300 MW small modular nuclear reactor in Tennessee. (Power)
COAL: A Virginia bank says it’s lost $65.1 million in interest income since placing debt owed by West Virginia U.S. Sen. Jim Justice’s family’s coal companies on nonaccrual status in mid-2023. (Cardinal News)
ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE: A Texas official calls on federal law enforcement to reject a federal housing agency’s claim the state mishandled flood mitigation funding from Hurricane Harvey by discriminating against Black and Hispanic residents. (Houston Chronicle)
CLIMATE: Researchers discuss the possible role of climate change in a recent polar vortex that brought cold temperatures and snow to the Gulf Coast. (WWNO)
UTILITIES:
COMMENTARY:
NATURAL GAS: A lack of spare pipeline capacity into the region could threaten the reliability of New England and New York’s natural gas system in extreme cold weather, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. says. (Utility Dive)
ALSO: A Connecticut company signs a $160 million deal to build a 7.4-MW power plant in the state capital using natural gas fuel cells, which officials say will produce no emissions and contribute to state renewable energy goals. (CTpost)
OFFSHORE WIND: A Maine Congressman introduces legislation to prohibit offshore wind development in certain key fishing areas with the aim of protecting his state’s lobstering industry. (Maine Morning Star)
TRANSPORTATION: Ongoing projects to improve New York’s infrastructure, including adding solar generation to public transportation facilities, electrifying bus fleets, and improving transit infrastructure, will not be deterred by the Trump administration, officials say. (City & State New York)
GRID:
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: A Maine education official asks the EPA for relief as school districts that received problem-plagued electric buses grapple with financial loss, but officials still stand behind the importance of electrifying the state’s school bus fleets. (Kennebec Journal, subscription)
SOLAR:
CLIMATE: New Jersey environmental advocates lay out a wish list of goals they’d like to see gubernatorial candidates embrace, including reaching 100% clean energy by 2035 and advancing the electrification of public transportation. (New Jersey Monitor)
HYDROGEN: New York awards $1.2 million to four clean hydrogen research and development projects that show promise in making the production process cleaner and more efficient. (news release)
Correction: Illinois environmental and consumer advocates launched a $1 million ad buy opposing rate increases for a Peoples Gas pipeline replacement program. An item in Wednesday’s newsletter misstated the size of the ad buy.
GRID: Minnesota regulators approve permits for a 180-mile, $1 billion transmission line that two utilities say is needed to improve grid reliability as they transition from fossil fuels. (MPR News)
ALSO:
OHIO: Republican lawmakers introduce a bill that backers say would cut regulations on power produced in the state from nuclear, coal and gas plants to meet growing demand from manufacturing and data centers. (Toledo Blade)
CARBON CAPTURE: The owner of a large Illinois ethanol plant pursuing an onsite carbon capture project, along with the state’s corn lobby, has contributed millions of dollars to state lawmakers to support carbon capture policies as opponents worry the project could harm a local aquifer. (Investigate Midwest)
ELECTRIC VEHICLES:
OIL & GAS:
SOLAR:
UTILITIES: Xcel Energy spent the most on lobbying among companies and organizations in Minnesota in 2023, with most of the $1.4 million involving cases before the state Public Utilities Commission. (MinnPost)
CLIMATE: Dozens of Iowa residents speak out against proposed state science standards that would water down references to climate change in school curriculum. (KCCI)
NUCLEAR: North Dakota lawmakers consider legislation that would begin to study the potential of small nuclear plants making up a greater share of the state’s power generation. (KXNET)
WIND: National laboratory researchers find floating offshore wind facilities along the West Coast could add as much as 33 GW of generating capacity by 2050, but transmission constraints and the technology’s newness could hamper development. (Utility Dive)
CLEAN ENERGY:
SOLAR: A developer nears completion of a 13 MW solar installation in California to provide power to a glass manufacturing facility. (Glass International)
OIL & GAS:
POLITICS: Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon calls Trump’s energy-related executive orders a “win” for the state even though they lack specifics and could jeopardize funding for efficiency and grid resiliency projects. (WyoFile)
UTILITIES:
GRID: Videos show Southern California Edison distribution lines catching on fire in an area burned by a Los Angeles blaze days after the fire was extinguished. (Los Angeles Times)
TRANSPORTATION: California awards the Port of Los Angeles $31 million to test harbor craft emission-reduction technologies and develop zero-emission capable boats. (Biofuels Digest)
BATTERIES:
BIOFUELS: California advocates push back against proposed wood pellet plants and an export terminal, citing adverse community, climate and ecological impacts. (news release)
POLLUTION: The U.S. EPA launches an investigation into claims that a New Mexico city’s health department discriminated against residents when issuing air pollution regulations. (news release)
CLIMATE: Michigan climate officials say the state is on track to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 26% over 2005 levels by the end of 2025 and is on pace to reach a carbon neutrality goal by 2050. (Michigan Public)
PIPELINES:
NUCLEAR: Officials at a northern Michigan electric cooperative want to buy power from a nuclear plant slated to restart this year, in part to help meet the state’s climate goals a decade ahead of time. (Interlochen Public Radio)
ELECTRIC VEHICLES:
UTILITIES: Ameren Missouri customers push back on the utility’s proposed 15% rate increase that executives say is needed to pay for various grid infrastructure investments. (St. Louis Public Radio)
SOLAR:
CLEAN ENERGY: Rural Minnesota electric cooperatives receive more than $17 million in federal funding for renewable energy projects and load management through virtual power plants. (KIMT)
OFFSHORE WIND: Officials and climate advocates assess the likely impact of President Trump’s pause on new offshore wind leases and permits, with some expressing optimism that most ongoing developments will be unaffected and others worrying about stranded investments, job losses, and delayed progress toward climate goals. (WBUR, Boston Globe, Maine Morning Star)
ALSO: Days before the inauguration, federal regulators give a wind farm off Massachusetts the go-ahead to continue construction and energy production after the failure of a turbine blade in July halted the operation. (Vineyard Gazette)
EFFICIENCY:
CLEAN ENERGY:
UTILITIES: New Hampshire regulators instruct utilities to buy some electricity on day-to-day markets rather than acquiring it all in six-month advance contracts, a move the state’s consumer advocate says could make residents vulnerable to unexpected price spikes. (Concord Monitor)
TRANSPORTATION: New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a longtime opponent of New York’s congestion pricing, asks Trump to take a “close look” at the program, saying it did not receive enough federal scrutiny before its launch earlier this year. (The Hill)
NATURAL GAS: In Maryland, Democratic state lawmakers contemplate turning to natural gas to help address tight power supplies and rising prices. (Fox Baltimore)
COAL: Maryland identifies nearly 100 coal ash dumps holding 200 million pounds of ash across the Chesapeake Bay region, many of which are unmonitored or poorly mitigated, allowing toxins to seep into the groundwater. (Bay Journal)
COMMENTARY: Connecticut should modify policies and increase program funding to unlock community solar’s benefits for disadvantaged communities, says a local college student studying urban planning. (CT Mirror)
WIND: President Trump issues an executive order halting work on the recently approved Lava Ridge wind project in southern Idaho, saying it “is allegedly contrary to the public interest and suffers legal deficiencies.” (Idaho Statesman)
SOLAR:
CLEAN ENERGY: A California lawmaker introduces legislation that would extend state renewable energy tax incentives in an effort to preempt Trump administration cuts. (E&E News, subscription)
LITHIUM: The Biden administration finalized a nearly $1 billion loan for the contested proposed Rhyolite Ridge lithium mine in Nevada. (Nevada Current)
COAL: PacifiCorp cancels scheduled coal plant retirements in Utah, citing state and federal regulatory changes. (Utah News Dispatch)
UTILITIES:
GRID: Urban Alaska utilities warn customers to prepare for rolling blackouts as a natural gas shortage intensifies. (Northern Journal)
OIL & GAS: Portland, Oregon’s city council begins considering issuing a permit to Zenith Energy’s contested oil storage facility and terminal. (KOIN)
BUILDINGS:
CLIMATE: New Mexico advocates rally at the state capitol and call on lawmakers to take immediate action to mitigate the climate crisis. (Source NM)
NUCLEAR:
BIOFUELS: Northern California advocates look to shut down a biomass power plant fueled by wood waste, saying it emits climate-warming carbon and other pollutants. (JPR)
EMISSIONS:
President Trump was sworn in Monday, and immediately got to work signing executive orders targeting climate action, wind power, electric vehicles and other priorities of the previous administration.
One of Trump’s biggest moves was to declare a national emergency on energy, noting that power demand is growing and that the country needs to move quickly to meet it. The move unlocks strong executive powers that Trump said he’d use to encourage fossil fuel production — and could open him up to legal challenges if he can’t prove there’s a true energy emergency.
To address the declared emergency, Trump ordered federal agencies to review policies that “burden the development of domestic energy resources” and dismantle them as soon as possible.
But the growing need for energy at home didn’t stop Trump from ending a freeze on permitting for liquefied natural gas exports. And at the same time, Trump also halted federal permitting for new wind projects, even though the industry added 5 GW of new power capacity to the grid last year.
Trump also froze unspent federal subsidies for EV purchases and for automakers to build EV and battery factories, taking away a big incentive for manufacturers and consumers to move away from gas-powered cars.
All of these day-one orders have a clear beneficiary: the fossil fuel industry. But as pollution continues to drive climate change, communities on the front lines of worsening winter storms, hurricanes and wildlifes won’t be sharing in the win.
🔋 Clean energy first: A group of young conservative climate advocates say President-elect Trump’s return to office creates an opportunity for an “America-First” climate strategy to “win the clean energy arms race.” (Grist)
🇺🇲 Getting nonpolitical: Experts say focusing on “nonpolitical” benefits like grid resilience and energy security will help expand virtual power plants during the upcoming Trump administration. (Utility Dive)
🚗 Tesla’s paradox: Although Tesla CEO Elon Musk is leading Trump’s charge to slash government programs, his company has received $10.7 billion from federal climate credits over the last decade, according to securities filings. (E&E News)
🐑 A wooly good pairing: A 900 MW Texas solar farm uses roughly 3,000 sheep to maintain vegetation at its 4,000-acre site, illustrating a broader trend pairing livestock with solar energy development across the U.S. (Associated Press)
💸 Last loans: In what could be a final Inflation Reduction Act disbursement, the Department of Energy announced $22.4 billion in conditional loans for utilities to help cut emissions and bolster the grid. (Canary Media)
🐄 Cleaning up co-ops: A $6 billion round of funding announced by the USDA last week will help rural electric co-ops around the country develop new clean energy resources. (Canary Media)
Plus, some confirmation hearing updates
EFFICIENCY: A new report finds utilities in Tennessee and other Southeast states have the lowest energy efficiency ranking of any region in the U.S. (Tennessee Lookout)
OIL & GAS: Texas regulators adopt updated oilfield waste rules that now cover drill cuttings, mud that oozes from wells and the wastewater that comes to the surface during fracking. (Inside Climate News)
SOLAR: A 900 MW Texas solar farm uses roughly 3,000 sheep to maintain vegetation at its 4,000-acre site, illustrating a broader trend pairing livestock with solar energy development across the U.S. (Associated Press)
POLITICS:
COAL:
ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE:
GRID:
CARBON CAPTURE: The U.S. EPA approves West Virginia’s request for primary enforcement authority for the drilling of injection wells for carbon capture projects. (Charleston Gazette-Mail)
EMISSIONS:
COMMENTARY:
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